A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
